America Is Running Out of Doctors

Health Policy Sep 14, 2026• By EMANUEL SARKEES Most people assume that when they need a doctor, a doctor will be available. That assumption is getting harder to hold onto. Right now, more than 83 million Americans live in highlighted Health Professional Shortage Areas, which is the government’s official notice that where they live does not have enough physicians to meet basic healthcare demand. That is not a projection of something yet to come. It is the situation today, and the numbers are moving in the wrong direction. The Association of American Medical Colleges projects the United States will face a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. The National Center for Health Workforce Analysis puts it even higher, projecting a shortage of 124,180 physicians by 2027 and 187,130 by 2037. The two organizations use different methods but they land in the same place. The country is training, retaining, and deploying far fewer physicians than its growing and aging population needs. What makes this worth paying attention to right now is not just the size of the problem. It is the fact that this shortage was not some unavoidable outcome. It was built, step by step, and then never was cor...